I had written earlier about the policy of Pakistan using its civilian govt to keep India distracted from the military agenda of Pak Army.
As 2014 approaches, its amply clear that Pak Army wants to assert itself as the dominant player in the AfPak region which is now under US domination. It wants India out of Afghanistan & then use that as a strategic depth with all the Jihadis focussing their attention on Kashmir. The steady increase in ceasefire violations and cross border raids is an indicator of the fact that after years of lull, Pak Army is going back to its main agenda which is Kashmir and its inimical relations with India that keeps the Pak Army relevant in its country.
India has to think about its own interests and not be lulled into any complacency over Pakistan in pursuit of peace. Like any relations good or bad, sometimes its better not to talk and see each other for a while than meet without any agenda and feel the other side is back stabbing. India should for the moment call off all talks with Pakistan including any track II or back channel negotiations directly or through any third countries.
In the meanwhile, India has to earnestly prepare both militarily as well as policy wise for a post US drawdown and expect increased Pakistani ceasefire violations, transgressions using both its Army as well as terrorists.
One of the things India can do is to make it economically prohibitive for Pakistan to wage its proxy war against India. While it will cost India to do that, it will not pinch India as much as it will for Pakistan.
One of the ways to do that is to ratchet up military presence across the border with Pakistan including international border. Start 24/7 combat air patrol over the region with a subtle hint that any terrorist activity in India may lead to punitive strikes against Pakistan immediately using any means available.
Similarly stationing of Indian Army Including armored units & continuously war gaming which will force Pakistan to mount its own to counter and the same goes with the navy testing Pakistan close to its territorial waters.
While we may not mount any strikes, Pakistan will be forced to counter Indian combat air patrols,army & naval deployments which will require it to spend its limited resources on countering Indian military deployments which it will otherwise divert to fund terrorist activity against India or buy weapons directed against India.
Pakistan usually compensates for its inferiority conventional forces with building more nuclear weapons & missiles. It costs a lot of money to make nukes and more importantly maintain them and securing them.Pakistan recently raised a force of additional 25,000 troops to secure its nuclear warheads from the threats it perceives, be it militants,US special forces or even any Indian action. With India developing and deploying ballistic missile defence system,it will make Pakistan spend even more on its nuclear and missile forces.
Short of going to war,India can considerably increase the costs for Pakistan and make it worry about its security rather than divert all attention and resources on terrorism against India.
If India totally closes down all dialog, Pakistan will have little room to play the usual tricks it has been playing with India to get away with murder. Pakistan will have to concede somewhere as it bleeds economically especially if there are any sanctions imposed on Pakistan after US drawdown for its role in sponsoring terrorism. The terms then can be set by India.